Here’s are some interesting thoughts comparing the first month of 2019 home sales with the last few years.
At first glance, we notice January 2019 total single-family home sales are 17% lower than January 2018 and it looks negative, but if you look closer there’s a positive note.
January 2019 sales appear worse than they are because the first few months of 2018 had surprisingly high sales and we attribute those higher numbers to the change in mortgage rules end of 2017. Buyers, planning to buy before the rules tightened made their purchase either before the start of 2018 or during the first few months if they were locked in with a mortgage pre-qualification. A large portion of early 2018 sales was due to a buyer’s rush before the mortgage changes took place, but as the year rolled on the changes had an opposite effect. After the mortgage rules were tightened and the pre-2018 mortgages ran their course sales slowed substantially.
Drawing a conclusion from comparing January 2019 sales with January 2018 sales is shortsighted because of the unusual bump in sales January 2018. And if you compare early 2019 to other years it is higher than 3 of the last 4.
Sales have slowed successively every year since 2014. In January 2014 single family home sales in Red Deer, Alberta was 87 units. The following year, 2015 sales were 53 units. In 2016 there were 52 units sold and in 2017 there were 50 sales.
January 2019 sale numbers outpaced 3 of the last 4 years and one of those years, 2018, had unusually high numbers due to an out of the ordinary circumstance. Maybe now in 2019 buyers are realizing it’s a great time to buy and maybe the fallout from the 2018 mortgage rule changes has waned.
There hasn’t been a better time to buy in many years and maybe we’ll see the impact of more buyers this year realizing it. Prices are low and so are interest rates.
Blake King with BigEarth.ca Realty
(403) 350 -7672