Total home sales in Red Deer have decreased year after year since 2014 and 2019 might continue that trend unless November sales hint at what December will bring.
Home sale in 2018 started out so strong we thought we were going to see the trend end but the second half of 2018 registered lower sales with total sales ending 11% lower than 2017.
This year, 2019, homes sales were all over the place giving us no reason to expect the lower-sales trend would end but is there’s light at the end of the tunnel with 3 of the last 5 months showing improved sales over last year – especially after November sales show a 22.6% improvement.
Home sales in Red Deer November 2019 were 22.6% higher than November 2018 and that sounds great but sales numbers were surprisingly low in November last year. At the end of October 2019, home sales were 4.9% lower than 2018 but the November sales boost has turned the tide a little. With surprisingly higher sales in November 2019 total sales are now only 3.2% lower than 2018’s.
Realistically, home sales in December will have to be pretty substantial to bring total sales in 2019 above 2018’s. This December’s home sales will have to beat last year by 75% to end the negative trend :-).
On a positive note though, the percentage sales decrease each year has gradually declined and at the very least we should see it happen again this year. 2015 home sales in Red Deer were -16.2% lower than 2014’s. In 2016 they were only -8.5% lower than in 2015. In 2017 the margin narrowed to only -6.7% and in 2018 home sales were 6.3% lower than the year prior.
The positive news is, right now at the end of November, homes sales are only -3.2% lower than in 2018. The gap is narrowing and if that trend continues we will see higher sales in 2020 than in 2019.
Is this an indication that we are at the bottom of the sale curve with growth right around the corner? Some would argue it means exactly that and if it’s true buyers right now will see the most benefits over the next decade.